{
 "question": "P12 に登録された地点が『温泉』の分類か、温泉以外の観光資源か(負例は温泉が無い場所ではない)",
 "preregistration": "docs/ai_preregistration.md",
 "preregistration_sha256": "129877d8f36b85b702957e29160680e92180eff45bb0248c4dd1479aa01d7e69",
 "seed": 20260915,
 "n_splits": 5,
 "rows": 2640,
 "positives": 1320,
 "negatives": 1320,
 "prefectures": 37,
 "features": [
  "elevation_m",
  "slope_deg",
  "local_relief_m",
  "distance_to_volcano_km",
  "distance_to_river_km",
  "distance_to_lake_km",
  "vegetation_naturalness",
  "geology_group"
 ],
 "versions": {
  "scikit-learn": "1.9.1",
  "xgboost": "3.4.1",
  "numpy": "2.5.3"
 },
 "models": {
  "logistic": {
   "label": "Logistic Regression",
   "grouped": {
    "accuracy": 0.621969696969697,
    "precision": 0.6269716088328076,
    "recall": 0.6022727272727273,
    "f1": 0.6143740340030912,
    "roc_auc": 0.6496570821854913,
    "pr_auc": 0.6295948479056086
   },
   "random": {
    "accuracy": 0.6208333333333333,
    "precision": 0.6291497975708502,
    "recall": 0.5886363636363636,
    "f1": 0.6082191780821918,
    "roc_auc": 0.6574185032139577,
    "pr_auc": 0.6383146567182933
   },
   "hyperparameters": {
    "max_iter": 2000,
    "C": 1.0,
    "standardize": true
   }
  },
  "random_forest": {
   "label": "Random Forest",
   "grouped": {
    "accuracy": 0.6397727272727273,
    "precision": 0.6513535684987695,
    "recall": 0.6015151515151516,
    "f1": 0.6254430878298542,
    "roc_auc": 0.6863122704315885,
    "pr_auc": 0.6709977545255705
   },
   "random": {
    "accuracy": 0.6636363636363637,
    "precision": 0.6682242990654206,
    "recall": 0.65,
    "f1": 0.6589861751152074,
    "roc_auc": 0.7166632231404958,
    "pr_auc": 0.706612244739635
   },
   "hyperparameters": {
    "n_estimators": 500,
    "min_samples_leaf": 2,
    "random_state": 20260915
   }
  },
  "xgboost": {
   "label": "XGBoost",
   "grouped": {
    "accuracy": 0.6272727272727273,
    "precision": 0.6302325581395349,
    "recall": 0.615909090909091,
    "f1": 0.6229885057471264,
    "roc_auc": 0.6770767332415059,
    "pr_auc": 0.6650861722398982
   },
   "random": {
    "accuracy": 0.6541666666666667,
    "precision": 0.6547528517110266,
    "recall": 0.6522727272727272,
    "f1": 0.6535104364326376,
    "roc_auc": 0.7051492194674013,
    "pr_auc": 0.694357789438547
   },
   "hyperparameters": {
    "n_estimators": 400,
    "max_depth": 4,
    "learning_rate": 0.05,
    "subsample": 0.8,
    "colsample_bytree": 0.8,
    "random_state": 20260915
   }
  }
 },
 "best_model": "random_forest",
 "baselines": {
  "constant": {
   "grouped_roc_auc": 0.5
  },
  "single_feature": {
   "elevation_m": 0.5738039485766759,
   "slope_deg": 0.5899939738292012,
   "local_relief_m": 0.6240183080808082,
   "distance_to_volcano_km": 0.5347856404958677,
   "distance_to_river_km": 0.6202806473829201,
   "distance_to_lake_km": 0.5215782828282828,
   "vegetation_naturalness": 0.5903879706152434
  },
  "best_single_feature": {
   "feature": "local_relief_m",
   "grouped_roc_auc": 0.6240183080808082
  }
 },
 "negative_control": {
  "method": "都道府県の中でラベルを無作為に入れ替えて同じ手順で学習",
  "roc_auc": 0.4752794995408632
 },
 "gates": {
  "G-22a": {
   "rule": "最良モデルの都道府県分割 ROC-AUC ≥ 0.65",
   "value": 0.6863122704315885,
   "passed": true
  },
  "G-22b": {
   "rule": "最強の 1 変数ベースラインより +0.02 以上",
   "value": 0.06229396235078033,
   "passed": true
  },
  "G-22c": {
   "rule": "陰性対照の ROC-AUC が 0.45〜0.55",
   "value": 0.4752794995408632,
   "passed": true
  }
 },
 "permutation_importance": {
  "model": "random_forest",
  "metric": "ROC-AUC の落ち幅(都道府県分割の検証側・5 回)",
  "features": {
   "elevation_m": {
    "mean": 0.008002563128161135,
    "sd": 0.008416818899279081
   },
   "slope_deg": {
    "mean": 0.013261840828768374,
    "sd": 0.006680513358717039
   },
   "local_relief_m": {
    "mean": 0.0652990582003744,
    "sd": 0.016258111100360226
   },
   "distance_to_volcano_km": {
    "mean": 0.00833472837344674,
    "sd": 0.008147216693057877
   },
   "distance_to_river_km": {
    "mean": 0.08041693218543124,
    "sd": 0.02612869964618491
   },
   "distance_to_lake_km": {
    "mean": -0.0036044977861811535,
    "sd": 0.006820610701302399
   },
   "vegetation_naturalness": {
    "mean": 0.02509914037922621,
    "sd": 0.010862282295835865
   },
   "geology_group": {
    "mean": 0.004009679734654461,
    "sd": 0.006127246356760748
   }
  }
 }
}